Introduction
In a stunning diplomatic development, Belarus opposition leader unexpectedly released prominent opposition figure Sergei Tikhanovsky along with 13 other political prisoners. The move comes amid a rare high-level US visit to Minsk, marking a potential thaw in Belarus’ years-long isolation. The husband of opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya was reunited with her in exile in Vilnius, Lithuania, after spending five years in prison.
The Surprise Release of Sergei Tikhanovsky
The release of Tikhanovsky was announced by his wife via social media with a short video of the couple embracing for the first time since his 2020 arrest. Tikhanovsky, a former video blogger who rallied thousands against Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko, was convicted in 2021 and sentenced to 18 years in prison for allegedly organizing mass protests. [Source: BBC]
Despite his dramatic weight loss and visibly weakened appearance, his release has reinvigorated the opposition movement. His wife, who entered politics only after his arrest, has since become the internationally recognized face of Belarusian democratic opposition.
The Diplomatic Context Behind the Release
The release coincided with the visit of US special envoy Keith Kellogg to Minsk, where he held a rare meeting with President Lukashenko. Analysts suggest that Tikhanovsky’s freedom may have been a key US demand for opening diplomatic dialogue with the embattled Belarusian leader.
Belarus has faced mounting Western sanctions since the violent crackdown on mass protests following the disputed 2020 presidential election. The meeting with Kellogg is seen as a possible diplomatic breakthrough for Lukashenko, who has been internationally isolated for years. [Source: Carnegie Europe]
Other Political Prisoners Released
Alongside Tikhanovsky, 13 other political prisoners, including citizens from Japan, Poland, and Sweden, were released. Among them was Natalia Dulina, a 60-year-old professor who had been detained since 2022. Speaking from Lithuania, Dulina described the secrecy of the operation, saying she was blindfolded, handcuffed, and driven across the border without explanation. [Source: Human Rights Watch]
However, other well-known political prisoners, like opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova, remain behind bars. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya emphasized that the fight is far from over, noting that more than 1,150 political prisoners are still imprisoned in Belarus.
Why Now? Lukashenko’s Strategic Calculations
Experts believe Lukashenko may be seeking to leverage prisoner releases for diplomatic gains, particularly with the possibility of easing sanctions or reopening limited dialogue with the West. Artyom Shraibman of Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center commented, “It seems like the US asked for Tikhanovsky to be released as a concession in exchange for Kellogg’s visit.”
Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994, has grown increasingly dependent on Russian support, especially after allowing Moscow to use Belarusian territory to launch attacks on Ukraine. A thaw with the West could help him diversify his political options as Russia’s war drags on. [Source: Reuters]
Repression Continues Despite Releases
Despite the releases, repression inside Belarus continues. The Belarusian KGB is still accused of forcing citizens to cooperate with its agents under threat of arrest. Tens of thousands have been detained or exiled since 2020, and human rights organizations continue to document widespread abuses. [Source: Amnesty International]
What Next for the Opposition?
It remains uncertain what role Tikhanovsky will play now that he is free. With his wife firmly established as the opposition leader in exile, some analysts predict potential tensions or shifts within the opposition ranks. However, for now, his release is being celebrated as a major victory for Belarusian civil society and international diplomacy.
As Tikhanovskaya herself noted, “We are not done. All political prisoners must be released.” The world now waits to see whether Lukashenko’s surprising move will lead to real change or is simply a calculated maneuver for diplomatic survival.
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