Decades-Old Treaty Under Threat
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank in 1960, is now facing one of its most serious challenges. As diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan deteriorate, both the United States and the World Bank are reportedly preparing to intervene discreetly to preserve the fragile agreement and prevent a broader regional crisis.
A Pillar of Peace in a Volatile Region
The IWT divides the waters of the six Indus Basin rivers between the two nations: India controls the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan receives the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. These western rivers account for nearly 80% of the basin’s water flow and are vital for Pakistan’s agriculture and food security.
Remarkably, the treaty has endured through wars, skirmishes, and diplomatic freezes. However, its future is now uncertain following India’s decision to suspend elements of the agreement, a move widely seen as politically motivated.
India’s Political Maneuvering Raises Alarms
Following a recent militant attack, New Delhi has hinted at reducing cooperation under the treaty, including suspending data sharing and potentially limiting river flows to Pakistan. Although India lacks the infrastructure to halt water flows entirely, analysts warn that these symbolic gestures signal a hardening stance.
Joshua White, a former White House advisor on South Asian affairs, suggested the US and World Bank will likely act behind the scenes. “This was taken as a credible threat after the 2016 Uri attack. India didn’t abrogate the agreement then, but this time may be different,” he said.
Concerns of ‘Water Warfare’
Experts like Dr. Hassan Abbas from the National Defence University in Washington warned of severe humanitarian consequences if India follows through with aggressive water control measures. “Water warfare,” he stated, “can devastate ordinary lives across South Asia and threaten regional stability.”
While large-scale diversion is unlikely due to infrastructure constraints, the psychological and diplomatic impact is substantial. Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner, Syed Mehr Ali Shah, called India’s move “political” but acknowledged the lack of immediate physical impact.
Diplomatic and Legal Remedies Still Exist
The IWT includes multiple mechanisms for dispute resolution, including the Permanent Indus Commission and the option for arbitration or neutral expert mediation. Pakistan has previously raised concerns over Indian hydropower projects like the 330MW Kishanganga and 850MW Ratle dams, citing design violations.
A 2023 World Bank report noted that these disagreements are unresolved, and the potential for conflict remains unless dialogue resumes. Analysts urge both countries to utilize these frameworks before the situation escalates further.
Call for Infrastructure Development in Pakistan
Latif Javed, a former Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) member, emphasized the urgency for Pakistan to accelerate construction of critical dams like Diamer Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand. He also advocated revisiting the Kalabagh Dam proposal and developing new reservoirs in Balochistan to enhance national water security.
The Road Ahead: Diplomacy Over Brinkmanship
While the US State Department has remained neutral on Kashmir and the treaty’s status, spokesperson Tammy Bruce confirmed that Washington is monitoring the situation closely. Experts stress that sustained diplomacy, not brinkmanship, is the only viable solution to this potentially explosive crisis between two nuclear powers.
Category: International Relations, South Asia, Environment & Climate
Tags: Indus Waters Treaty, US World Bank mediation, India Pakistan tensions, water security South Asia, Kishanganga dam, Ratle dam dispute, climate impact Pakistan, Kashmir conflict, hydroelectric projects, water warfare
