The week ahead on Dalal Street is likely to be a busy one with numerous economic and corporate events set to influence market trends. After a positive week that saw moderate gains, markets are expected to consolidate in the coming days, as analysts predict increased volatility amid geopolitical concerns and ongoing quarterly earnings reports.
1. Q4 Earnings Season
The March 2025 quarter earnings season will continue to unfold next week, with nearly 190 companies expected to release their financial results. Key Nifty 50 stocks like UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and State Bank of India will be in focus. Along with these, several other major corporates such as Ambuja Cements, Avenue Supermarts, and Adani Power will also release their earnings, influencing stock-specific action across Dalal Street.
2. Auto Sales Data
Auto stocks are likely to remain in focus as companies like Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and TVS Motor will report their monthly sales data for April. These figures are crucial for understanding consumer sentiment and overall market performance in the auto sector. Auto sales data is expected to provide important signals for both short-term market movement and long-term investment strategies.
3. US Economic Data: GDP and Jobs
On the global front, US economic data will play a significant role in shaping market sentiment. Key reports to watch include the Q1 GDP growth estimate, unemployment data, and non-farm payrolls. Economists predict a slowdown in the US economy in Q1, with GDP growth expected to fall significantly from the previous quarter’s 2.4 percent. These figures could provide insights into the US economic recovery and potential impacts on global markets.
4. Manufacturing PMI and Global Economic Data
The manufacturing PMI for several major economies, including India, China, and Europe, will also be closely monitored. These data points will offer a snapshot of economic activity and provide crucial information on growth trends. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will be in focus, as market participants anticipate any shifts in monetary policy that could affect global markets.
5. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Volatility
One of the key risks to watch this week is the ongoing geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan. The market could experience increased volatility, especially following recent developments in the border regions. Analysts caution that these tensions could create uncertainty, adding risk to otherwise positive market sentiment.
6. FII and DII Trends
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net buyers over the last two weeks, significantly reducing their earlier month’s net selling positions. The market will closely watch whether this trend continues, with FIIs playing a crucial role in maintaining market stability. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also remain active, having net bought over ₹22,250 crore worth of shares in the past month.
7. IPOs to Watch: Ather Energy IPO
With improved market sentiment, the IPO market is seeing renewed interest. Ather Energy, an electric vehicle maker, is opening its ₹2,981 crore IPO for subscription from April 28-30. This marks the first mainboard IPO in more than two months. Additionally, several SME IPOs, such as Wagons Learning and Kenrik Industries, will hit the market, creating further opportunities for investors.
8. Technical View: Nifty 50 Consolidation
On the technical front, the Nifty 50 index is expected to consolidate in the short term. The formation of a “Shooting Star” pattern on weekly charts could signal a bearish reversal, but the overall market trend remains positive. Key support levels for Nifty are at 23,850 and 23,750, while resistance is placed at 24,365. Traders should be cautious of any sudden volatility, particularly as geopolitical tensions rise.
9. F&O Cues
The weekly options data suggest that Nifty 50 is likely to trade within the 23,500-24,500 range in the short term, with strong open interest at key strike prices like 25,000, 24,500, and 24,300. These levels will serve as important markers for market direction and price movements.
10. Corporate Actions
Several corporate actions, including dividend declarations and stock splits, will take place next week. These actions can have a direct impact on stock prices and market sentiment, making them crucial for short-term traders and long-term investors alike.
Conclusion
In summary, the upcoming week on Dalal Street will be marked by key data releases, corporate earnings, and potential geopolitical risks. With a mix of positive domestic and global cues, investors should expect a week of consolidation amid rising volatility. The market will closely monitor the earnings reports, auto sales, and global economic data to gauge the next leg of market movement. Caution is advised due to the rising geopolitical tensions, and investors should be prepared for possible fluctuations in market sentiment.
