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The Morning News Informer > Blog > News > All India News > Deadly Kashmir Attack Raises Risk of Indian Military Escalation Against Pakistan
All India News

Deadly Kashmir Attack Raises Risk of Indian Military Escalation Against Pakistan

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Last updated: April 25, 2025 5:03 am
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Tourist Massacre in Pahalgam Marks Kashmir’s Deadliest Attack Since 2019

At least 26 civilians were killed in a brutal gun attack in Pahalgam, a popular tourist spot in Indian-administered Kashmir, on Tuesday. The assault, carried out in broad daylight, is the deadliest militant attack in the region since 2019 and has triggered fears of a sharp military escalation between India and Pakistan.

Contents
Tourist Massacre in Pahalgam Marks Kashmir’s Deadliest Attack Since 2019India’s Swift Response: Borders Closed, Diplomats ExpelledMilitary Retaliation Likely, Say ExpertsRisk of Escalation Amid Nuclear DeterrenceStrategic Dilemma: Covert vs Overt ActionFragile Peace at StakeDomestic Fallout and Security Failures

The attack targeted tourists, not military personnel, making the strike particularly symbolic. It undercuts efforts by the Indian government to project normalcy in the volatile region. Eyewitnesses reported scenes of panic as tourists fled under gunfire, while survivors were rushed to local hospitals under heavy security.

India’s Swift Response: Borders Closed, Diplomats Expelled

India has wasted no time in reacting. The government has closed the main border crossing with Pakistan, suspended a key water-sharing treaty, and expelled Pakistani diplomats. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh vowed a “strong response,” promising that the masterminds behind the attack will face consequences.

Military Retaliation Likely, Say Experts

Experts believe a military response is all but inevitable. “Since 2016 and especially after 2019, the threshold for retaliation has been set at cross-border or air strikes,” said military historian Srinath Raghavan. “It’ll be hard for the government to act below that now.”

Previous responses to attacks in Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) involved surgical strikes and air raids inside Pakistan-administered territory. Both episodes nearly led to broader conflict but stopped short of full-scale war.

Risk of Escalation Amid Nuclear Deterrence

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst, stated the high death toll and civilian targeting could prompt India to launch retaliatory air or missile strikes. “The advantage would be political and potentially strategic, but the risk of escalation is significant,” he told the BBC.

India faces pressure from the public to act decisively, especially with the shadow of national elections on the horizon. However, any retaliation risks setting off a dangerous chain reaction, particularly given both countries’ nuclear capabilities.

Strategic Dilemma: Covert vs Overt Action

Christopher Clary, an expert in South Asian security, suggested two likely paths for India: renewed cross-border firing along the Line of Control (LoC), or targeted airstrikes similar to the 2019 Balakot operation. Both options carry the risk of Pakistani retaliation.

“No path is without risks,” Clary warned. “And with the U.S. distracted by other global issues, third-party crisis mediation may not be available.”

Fragile Peace at Stake

In 2021, India and Pakistan agreed to a LoC ceasefire, which has largely held despite sporadic militant activity. But the latest attack threatens to unravel that fragile agreement. Hussain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S., warned that even limited Indian strikes could provoke a significant Pakistani military response.

“Pakistan argues it is being blamed without investigation. But political pressure in India may override diplomatic caution,” he said.

Domestic Fallout and Security Failures

Beyond external threats, India also faces scrutiny over its internal security lapses. “That such an attack occurred at the peak of tourist season points to a serious failure in a Union Territory directly under federal control,” Raghavan noted.

With national pride, regional peace, and civilian safety at stake, the coming days may determine not only India’s military posture but also the trajectory of one of South Asia’s most volatile conflicts.

Category: South Asia News, Security & Conflict, Geopolitics
Tags: Kashmir attack, Pahalgam shooting, India-Pakistan tensions, cross-border strikes, Rajnath Singh, surgical strikes 2025, LoC ceasefire, Balakot airstrikes, Modi Kashmir response, nuclear deterrence, tourism in Kashmir

TAGGED:Balakot airstrikescross-border strikesIndia-Pakistan tensionsKashmir attackLoC ceasefireModi Kashmir responsenuclear deterrencePahalgam shootingRajnath Singhsurgical strikes 2025
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