Rainfall Alert! Monsoon to Arrive Early This Year? What Unusual May Weather Means for India

Unseasonal Rainfall and Thunderstorms Signal Early Monsoon Onset

Unusual weather patterns are sweeping across India this May, with frequent rainfall, thunderstorms, and below-normal temperatures in multiple regions. According to meteorological experts, this phenomenon indicates an early onset of the 2025 Southwest Monsoon, projected to arrive around May 27 in Kerala — ahead of its usual June 1 timeline.

This aligns with the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) predictions, suggesting above-normal monsoon rainfall—vital for agriculture, water security, and economic stability.

What’s Causing the Unusual May Weather?

According to M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, the ongoing unusual weather is due to frequent western disturbances and moisture incursion. This has led to intermittent thunderstorm activity and above-normal rainfall, keeping temperatures either normal or below normal — except in Rajasthan, which is facing isolated heat wave conditions.

Despite this, Mohapatra clarified that these anomalies will not affect the monsoon’s arrival timeline. “We are expecting an early onset of monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and Kerala around May 27. However, early onset does not equate to the volume of rainfall,” he said.delhi-weather-update .

IMD Issues Alerts Across Kerala

The IMD has issued an orange alert for six Kerala districts — Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod — following persistent heavy rainfall. A yellow alert has been issued for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, and Palakkad.

Find daily updates on alert levels from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) or follow our India Monsoon Tracker for regional breakdowns.

Will 2025 See a Normal or Strong Monsoon?

India is expected to receive 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall between June and September, according to the official monsoon forecast. However, a weak heat low formation in Northwest India — critical for drawing monsoon moisture — remains a concern.

Learn more about how this affects Indian agriculture in our 2025 agriculture impact analysis.

How Will This Impact Farmers and the Economy?

An early and above-normal monsoon usually boosts agricultural productivity and rural consumption. But uneven rainfall distribution may pose risks. According to FAO, such changes could affect food production, flooding risk, and groundwater recharge.

Conclusion: Promising Onset, But Eyes on Rainfall Distribution

While IMD’s data and weather models indicate an early and strong monsoon, climate experts stress the importance of monitoring regional rainfall and heat low patterns. “The onset looks early, but that’s just the beginning,” said M. Rajeevan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Stay updated through the AccuWeather India Forecast and our weather news section for daily coverage.