As Akshaya Tritiya 2025 nears, the Indian gold market has reached a historic milestone. The spot price of gold has surged past the psychologically significant mark of ₹1 lakh per 10 grams, reflecting the yellow metal’s rising global appeal as a safe haven asset.
According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), gold was priced around ₹99,100 per 10 grams as of April 22, with further gains pushing it past the ₹1 lakh mark by the last week of April. In global markets, gold soared past $3,500 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, inflation fears, and central bank buying.
What’s Driving Gold’s Rally?
Gold’s bullish run is backed by a range of global and domestic factors:
- Ongoing tariff wars and US dollar volatility
- Increased gold reserve accumulation by central banks
- Persistent inflation concerns
- Renewed post-pandemic demand in India and China
“This year marks a significant period for gold. Prices have increased by 25% since January 2025, reaching historic highs globally and in India,” said Sachin Jain, Regional CEO – India, World Gold Council. He expects strong festive and wedding-related demand to continue despite the price surge.
Expert Advice: Don’t Chase the Rally
Despite the shine, financial experts are urging caution, especially for retail investors who haven’t yet participated in the gold rally.
“Gold has rallied 30% in the last four months. For retail investors, it’s more of exuberance than opportunity. It’s best to stay cautious and focus on asset allocation,” said Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Investment advisors stress that price should not drive investment decisions. “Gold should form 10-15% of your overall portfolio,” said Harshad Chetanwala, Co-founder of MyWealthGrowth.
Asset Allocation Over Price Speculation
Experts agree that gold is a vital component of a diversified portfolio, especially in times of global uncertainty. But the key is sticking to your target allocation rather than reacting emotionally to price movements.
- If your gold exposure is below 10-15%, you can increase it gradually.
- Buy in small tranches on dips over the next 6–12 months.
- If gold now makes up more than your allocation due to price increases, consider portfolio rebalancing.
“Use volatility to your advantage. If you’re underexposed, increase allocation slowly. If you’re overexposed, rebalance but don’t sell outright. Gold is not just about returns—it’s about stability,” said Chirag Mehta, CIO of Quantum Mutual Fund.
2025 Forecast: More Gains Ahead?
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have upgraded their year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per ounce, with a range of $3,650–$3,950, citing strong central bank demand and rising ETF inflows amid recession concerns.
“Eventually, we see gold going beyond ₹1.06 lakh per 10 grams by year-end,” said Damani.
Irrespective of price movements, the focus should be more on asset allocation. “Our views do not change on the basis of price movements. Gold is important from the asset allocation perspective – it can be around 10 percent of your overall portfolio,” says Harshad Chetanwala, Co-founder, MyWealthGrowth, an investment advisory firm.
If your allocation is lower than 10-15 percent, you can look at adding gold to your portfolio. “Gold is at an all-time high due to the tariff wars and other uncertainties. Some may settle over time. If you want to build allocation in gold can use such opportunities to do so in a gradual manner instead of investing in it immediately. Look at it not from purely returns perspective, but as a portfolio diversifier,” Chetanwala added.
On the other hand, if exposure to gold has exceeded your planned allocation, there could be a case to rebalance. “If the proportion has increased due to falling equities and rise in gold prices, then you can look at rebalancing. There are plenty of uncertainties still, so there is room to rebalance, though not for outright selling,” said Chirag Mehta, Chief Investment Officer, Quantum Mutual Fund.
“If your allocation is lower, however, you can look to increase your exposure to 10-15 percent of your portfolio over a period of 6-12 months. Track volatility and increase your gold allocation by buying on dips,” Mehta added.
Bottom Line: Discipline Over Hype
Gold’s current rally is impressive, but seasoned investors know better than to chase performance. Akshaya Tritiya remains a culturally significant occasion to buy gold, but the smart strategy is disciplined investing based on portfolio needs, not festive excitement.
Maintain a 10-15% gold allocation in your overall investment portfolio, use market corrections to build exposure, and consult a SEBI-registered advisor for personalised guidance.
📌 Also Read: How to Choose a SEBI-Registered Financial Advisor to Guide Your Investments
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. Investors are advised to consult certified professionals before making investment decisions.
