Introduction

The first round of Poland’s 2025 presidential election has ended with Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski taking a narrow lead, according to exit polls. Representing the centrist Civic Platform (PO), Trzaskowski secured 31.1% of the vote, narrowly ahead of conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who gained 29.1%. Neither candidate won an outright majority, triggering a run-off on June 1.

First Round Election Results and Political Context

With 13 candidates contesting, the election reflects Poland’s deep political divide. The presidency holds important veto powers that influence government legislation. Trzaskowski’s potential victory could shift the balance, easing blockades on reforms introduced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition, especially on liberalizing abortion laws and judiciary reforms.

Despite trailing slightly below pre-election polls, Trzaskowski remains optimistic about his chances. Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, seeks to unite conservative and far-right voters, including supporters of Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, who together gained over 20% of the vote.

Trzaskowski told his supporters at a rally in Sandomierz, southern Poland: “We’re going to win.” But he said a lot of work and “great determination” would be needed.

“I’m convinced that all Poland will win,” he said.

He pledged to cooperate with prime minister Tusk’s coalition to liberalise the country’s strict abortion law and accelerate reform of the Polish judiciary, which was widely seen to have been politicised by the previous PiS-led government.

Trzaskowski performed worse than opinion polls predicted before the vote, which had him between 4%-6% ahead of Nawrocki.

Poland’s president has largely ceremonial powers but he or she is able to veto government legislation. Tusk’s coalition does not have a big enough parliamentary majority to overturn a presidential veto.

Tusk has failed to deliver many of his campaign promises, partly because the incumbent conservative president Andrzej Duda has vetoed his government’s legislation, but also due to divisions within the coalition over issues like abortion and civil partnerships.

A victory for Trzaskowski would remove the president’s veto, but Nawrocki would likely be an even tougher obstacle than Duda.

Nawrocki told his supporters in Gdansk that Tusk must be stopped from winning total power in Poland.

He called on supporters of two far-right candidates, Slawomir Mentzen, who came third and won 14.8%, and of Grzegorz Braun, who came fourth and won 6.3%, to “save Poland” from Tusk.

Key Factors Influencing the Run-off

• Voter Mobilization: Turnout will be crucial, as Trzaskowski must attract votes from centrist and left-leaning parties.
• Far-right Influence: Nawrocki aims to consolidate far-right voters, challenging Trzaskowski’s liberal platform.
• Polarized Electorate: With a fragmented vote base, both candidates face hurdles in appealing to a majority.
• Mentzen is an anti-establishment candidate, and some of his supporters may not want to vote for either Nawrocki or Trzaskowski, who represent the two parties that have dominated Polish politics for two decades.
• Far-right MEP, Grzegorz Braun’s result was a nasty surprise for Poland’s liberal voters.
• Braun made headlines in 2023 when he put out the candles on a Jewish menorah in the Polish parliament with a fire extinguisher following a ceremony for the festival of Hanukkah.
• Braun called the festival “satanic”. During a presidential debate last month he said: “Jews have far too much say in Polish affairs.”

Looking Ahead

The run-off will be a critical test for Poland’s future political direction amid ongoing debates on social policy and governance. Observers are closely watching how alliances and voter preferences evolve ahead of the June vote.

For a deeper understanding of Poland’s election system and political climate, visit our Poland Political System Explained.

Stay updated with comprehensive coverage of the European Elections 2025 as events unfold.

Learn more about the candidates and party platforms from official sources such as Civic Platform and Law and Justice Party.