Introduction
In a development that could reshape East Asian geopolitics, Taiwan’s trust in the United States has taken a serious hit following a surprise announcement of sweeping tariffs by President Donald Trump earlier this month. A recent poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation revealed that over 57% of Taiwanese now view the US as an unreliable partner, raising questions about the future of Taiwan-US relations.
Tariff Shock and Its Fallout
On April 2, Trump imposed a staggering 32% tariff on key imports, blindsiding Taiwanese policymakers who had expected no more than a 10% levy. The move sent shockwaves through Taiwan’s high-tech sector, especially companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which had already invested heavily in US facilities.
Adding insult to injury, Taiwan was excluded from the first round of trade talks during the 90-day grace period offered to some countries, raising concerns that Taipei’s strategic value might be judged solely through an economic and military lens.
Public Sentiment Turns
Michael You Ying-lung, chairman of the Public Opinion Foundation, described the survey findings as a possible turning point. “Because of Trump’s actions, particularly the shock of the new tariffs, the majority of Taiwanese have lost confidence in the US,” he said.
Shared democratic values and longstanding military ties traditionally cemented US-Taiwan relations, but Trump’s perceived transactional style has shaken that foundation. Max Lo, from the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, emphasized, “Trump’s policies seem more transactional than principled, and that deeply unsettles public opinion in Taiwan.”
Fears of ‘Another Ukraine’
Concerns intensified after reports that Trump had taken a tough stance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, raising fears that Taiwan could face similar treatment—demanding more while offering less support. Lo warned, “There’s a growing fear Trump might treat Taiwan the same way, demanding more and blaming Taiwan if things go wrong.”
Beijing Exploits the Uncertainty
Beijing has seized the opportunity to fan distrust, with analysts noting an uptick in cognitive warfare tactics. Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at Taiwan’s Institute of National Defence and Security Research, said, “China is trying to spread the perception that Trump will sell out Taiwan, capitalizing on existing doubts.”
On Taiwanese social media platforms, skepticism has flourished. Posts warn that “TSMC has become an American company, the silicon shield is gone,” and “the US won’t send troops — it’s already taken what it wants.”
Official Response: Caution and Diplomacy
Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te has responded cautiously. While calling the 32% tariffs “deeply unreasonable,” Lai has refrained from escalating tensions. Instead, he proposed dialogue to resolve trade issues and pledged to expand US imports without altering Taiwan’s broader investment strategies.
Despite rising public doubt, Lai’s administration emphasized that the new tariffs are part of broader global measures, not a specific betrayal of Taiwan, hoping to avoid a full-blown rupture with Washington.
The Broader Implications
Former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen voiced European concerns about Trump’s foreign policy, warning at a Taipei seminar that allies like Europe and Taiwan could no longer rely on the US with full certainty. “Trump sees the world in three power centers – Washington, Beijing, and Moscow – leaving others wondering where they fit,” Rasmussen said.
In defense of the administration, Raymond Greene, the de facto American ambassador to Taiwan, reassured audiences that the US remained committed to peace in the Indo-Pacific and opposed unilateral changes to the Taiwan Strait status quo.
Conclusion
While the Trump administration insists on its commitment to Taiwan’s security, the recent tariff shock and exclusion from trade talks have deeply unsettled public confidence. Whether this marks a lasting shift or a temporary emotional reaction remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Taiwan’s trust in its most crucial ally has been significantly rattled—potentially altering the strategic calculations in the region for years to come.
