As President Donald Trump escalates tariffs and stokes political tensions with Canada, a surprising consequence has emerged: increased Canadian patriotism in Quebec, even among long-time supporters of independence.
Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st U.S. state and his sweeping tariffs—particularly targeting Quebec’s aluminium, forestry, and dairy sectors—have galvanized a shift in political sentiment in the province known for its separatist leanings.
From Sovereigntist to Strategist
“Not from my heart, it’s from my head,” says 70-year-old Suzanne Dumont from Quebec City, who considers herself a sovereigntist but plans to vote Liberal to ensure a majority government capable of standing up to Trump.
For voters like Dumont, backing the Bloc Québécois—a party dedicated to Quebec’s independence—is seen as impractical in the current international climate. “Supporting the Conservatives is unthinkable,” she adds.
Bloc Support, But Not Power
In Montreal, Louis Plouffe praises the Bloc for defending Quebec’s interests but says he wants a government “ready for the wave that’s coming” from the U.S. He too leans toward the Liberals, citing Mark Carney’s confidence and credibility as key factors.
“Canadian patriotism is on the rise in Quebec,” explains Émilie Foster, political science professor at Carleton University. “We prefer to be part of Canada instead of being part of the United States, if we have to choose.”
Trump’s Influence on the Campaign
The federal election was already historic following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But the campaign was further transformed by Trump’s unexpected and aggressive involvement in trade rhetoric and policy.
A recent Léger survey found that nearly 40% of Bloc voters believe an independent Quebec would be less influential in negotiations with the U.S. than Canada as a whole.
Tariffs Hit Quebec Hard
Trump’s tariffs are poised to impact Quebec disproportionately. The province is a major aluminium supplier, now facing 25% U.S. import duties. The forestry and dairy sectors are also at risk, adding urgency to voters’ decisions.
The Battle for Quebec Votes
Quebec holds 78 seats in the House of Commons, making it crucial for any party seeking a federal majority. Currently, the Liberals are polling at 46% in the province, with the Bloc at 25% and Conservatives trailing slightly behind.
Claude Guay, a Liberal newcomer and former IBM Canada CEO, notes the symbolic impact of Trump’s rhetoric. “The threat of the 51st state really impacts opinions. Quebecers are asking: ‘Do we have a better place in Canada?’”
Bloc’s Uphill Battle
Despite a largely clean campaign by leader Yves-François Blanchet, the Bloc struggles to gain momentum as the focus turns to defending national unity against U.S. pressure. Bloc MP Louis-Philippe Sauvé admits that U.S. relations dominate voter concerns, overshadowing domestic issues like housing and immigration.
“Trump won’t be president forever,” Sauvé says. “But the housing crisis will still be a problem in the next few years.”
Mark Carney’s Quebec Challenge
Carney’s Western Canadian roots and moderate French skills are notable drawbacks in a province proud of its linguistic identity. He rates his French a six out of 10—an assessment voters like Ms. Dumont disagree with.
Still, his economic credentials and crisis leadership appear to have won over many who might otherwise lean separatist.
A Pause in the Independence Movement?
While about 30% of Quebecers still support independence, this election is seeing many put sovereignty aside in favor of a unified front against Trump’s provocations.
“It’s not saying it won’t happen,” Plouffe says, “but we’re not ready.”
Categories: Canada Politics, Quebec & Sovereignty, US-Canada Relations
Tags: Trump, Quebec, Bloc Québécois, Canadian federal election, sovereignty, tariffs, US-Canada trade, Mark Carney, Claude Guay
